Multi-dimensional dividend matrix (yield x growth x performance/YOC)
Burhan Arikan
Hello everyone, I've come up with an idea of how the dividend page can possibly be expanded. I would like to present this idea to you - I have made a graphic for a better understanding.
We can access dividend information among the respective holding companies (CAGR 3, 5 and 10 as well as current dividend yield), but it wouldn't even be so bad to offer a graphical presentation based on this information - especially in comparison with the other dividend stocks owned. Then you can see at a glance which of the FOUR areas (champion, future bearer, cash cow or laggard) you are mostly in (I have names from the Internet), because the X-axis represents the current dividend yield, Y-axis shows dividend growth (CAGR 5 or 10) and Z-axis (here in bubble) represents performance (CAGR) OR YOC% (CAGR 5 or 10).
Using the graphics, you could install two switchers:
- Calculation based on the last 5 or 10 years (CAGR)
- Display the Z-axis either as a price gain per year (CAGR) OR YOC (extrapolation, base growth rate in CAGR)
With m price gain per year, it must be calculated down to 5 or 10 years and could require additional computing power, and when extrapolating the YOC in 5 or 10 years, everyone must be aware that it is only a theoretical assumption, but still serves as a possible guide if you want to know whether you will achieve your goal of at least 6% or higher after 10 years with the same CAGR 10.
I hope that the idea will add value for you! :)
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Burhan Arikan
sequel
Does it make sense to combine the YOC% with the zones?
The YOC% is primarily important for dividend hunters, while performance is important and mostly relevant for laggards. There is a large number of shares in the portfolio or possibly, if you want to use it in general. Therefore, you can also use the YOC% as a filter by having a specific goal in mind. A YOC% of over 6.00% in 10 years can
- in the Zukunftträger zone with a Div. -Yield of 0.80% and a div. -
growth of 25.00% (YOC 7.45%),
- in the zone champion with a div. -Yield of 2.50% and a div. -Growth
of 10.00% (YOC 6.48%) and
- in the Cash-Cow zone with a div. -Yield of 4.50% and a div. -Growth
of 4.00% (YOC 6.66%).
Applied to the champion example above, this means:
- current Div. -Yield of 2.50%
Dividend of €25.00 on €1.000 .00 capital investment
- YOC% in 5 years (CAGR 10%)
Personal Div. -Yield rises to 4.03% (2.50 × 1.10^5)
Dividend of €40.30 on €1.000 .00 capital investment
- YOC% in 10 years (CAGR 10%)
Personal Div. -Yield rises to 6.48% (2.50 × 1.10^10)
Dividend of €64.80 on €1.000 .00 capital investment
The version is now a bit longer, but I hope it helps some people understand my perspective and idea. If still not, then I'm sorry that you've had to read the entire post up to this point
Burhan Arikan
sequel
As to your question with the laggards:
Which shareholder is the latecomer's strategy for?
It doesn't automatically mean that you should or must sell a latecomer. If the strategy is designed to invest primarily in growing companies that also pay out a small dividend as bonuses, then the zone is right. But in this case, the stock bubble plays a special role because
- in the best case scenario, the bubble should be larger than all other bubbles in other zones
should - this is primarily about price gains in the last 5 or 10 years (CAGR),
- but if the bladder is much too small and is in the zone, then you should use a
Do some research - not a high Div. -Yield, not a high Div. -growth and
not high performance!
In the latter case, you should look at the financial figures, quarterly reports and news and assess for yourself personally whether it endangers the investment in the long term or is a temporary situation/exaggeration.
As to your question with the YOC:
In the classic case, you calculate the target dividend by dividing the desired dividend by the current division. -Return calculated (1.000 ,00€/0.025 = 40.000 ,00€ target capital). The YOC% is the personal division. - Yield, which is usually higher than the current Div. -Yield is when you bought the stock more cheaply and have taken several dividend increases over time.
On the dividend side under dividend stocks, Parqet has introduced a YOC% based on historical data. But in the visual presentation, an extrapolation of 5 or 10 years should take place based on the data. So how would the YOC% develop in 5 or 10 years (CAGR) if I were to buy once today. Example with a capital investment of 1.000 ,00€:
- Div. -Yield of 1.25%
Dividend of €12.50
- YOC% in 5 Y (CAGR 10%)
Personal Div. -Yield rises to 2.01% (1.25 × 1.10^5)
Dividend of €20.10
- YOC% in 10 Y (CAGR 10%)
Personal Div. -Yield rises to 3.24% (1.25 × 1.10^10)
Dividend of €32.40
By extrapolating, you can see that the dividend payout in 10 years with the same div. growth (theoretically) increases by more than 2.5 times with the same investment of capital.
sequel
Burhan Arikan
Additional explanation through inquiries:
That's right, through the presentation you can definitely see
- the status quo and
- could actually use this as an opportunity for further analyses.
Especially if you have a target zone and the stock moves to another zone as a result of changes in the key figures (return, growth, performance or YOC).
Research: Why is the stock no longer a champion? What changed that made it move to the other zone?
Each shareholder has a different strategy, so the goals are different. Who prefer one
- Cash cows, i.e. today already an (average) high Div. -return and
Accept a smaller div in return. -growth,
- Future carrier, i.e. in history (CAGR 5/10) a high Div. -growth and
Accept a smaller div in return. -return,
- Champions who on paper have both a high Div. -return as well as a high
Div. growth, but is always below focus (for example, when
A share in the Cash-Cow zone a div. -Yield of 7.00%, it will be in
In this zone, it is more likely to be between 2.50 and 4.00% or if a share in the
Zone Future Carrier a Div. - has growth of over 20.00%, will it be in this
Zone is more likely to be between 10.00 and 15.00%. ),
- Latecomers who neither have a high Div. -Yield as well as Div. -Have growth. In
In principle, there is no focus on dividends!
The roles of the shares are determined by the Div. -Yield and Div. -Determines growth. As a result of the bubble, you as a shareholder have additional information about the share price gain you have had in the last 5 or 10 years (CAGR) and can incorporate this into the assessment.
sequel