Fair value/overvaluation & undervaluation
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Parqet Nutzer
I would love to see an overview of the analysts' buy/hold/sell recommendation per share. Perhaps that would be a good step towards making progress on this issue as well.
(I currently have to go into the details per share to see that).
P
Phönix
Hi everyone,
So I find
-Current P/E ratio
-average historical P/E ratio
- PEG
Would be a good thing
E
Eddy
What you could start with:
Use of historical P/E ratio:
You can estimate the fair value by multiplying the expected future earnings per share by a historical P/E ratio of the company or industry considered “normal.”
As a next step, you could add a code number:
Peter Lynch's PEG ratio:
This method compares the price/earnings ratio (P/E) with the expected annual growth rate. A share is considered to be fairly valued if its P/E ratio corresponds to growth (PEG = 1).
In this way, you could expand the methods step by step.
G
Gregor
Would it be possible to incorporate a type of DCF model with which you can output the intrinsic value of a company based on various assumptions of cash flow growth?
Björn Beier
Gregor: How would that work for example share A and sample share B, for example?
D
Dan
Björn Beier With a DCF model, you would not compare two stocks but calculate the “intrinsic value” of a single share based on future, discounted cash flows.
A feature where you can see the current value of your own holdings would of course be absolutely awesome. However, I see a problem in the implementation, there is a reason why there is no working tool known to me yet: The calculation itself is not rocket science, the problem is determining future cash flows and a kind of “perpetuity”. This is more art than science and, as far as I know, is still being solved with a huge Excel battle.
Björn Beier
Dan Yo, I already know what DCF is:D I was just wondering how it could be implemented in practice. The models are always heavily dependent on assumptions, it is difficult to accept anything there and then sell it to all users as “fair value”. That's why I was curious how that would basically be thought:D
D
Dan
Björn Beier Oh, sorry, then that was a misunderstanding:D I could only imagine it as being able to display each share in my portfolio, income statement, etc. as a table over several years and edit future values myself. In other words, deposit my own assumptions/investment cases in Parqet. If I store all necessary data, a fair value could be calculated in the background. It would also be exciting because it would also allow you to undergo an automated “reality check.” By default, you could use consensus values.
And yes, I'm just kicking out what I would find absolutely great as a feature. It is already clear to me that implementation or feasibility is a completely different matter.
Björn Beier
Here is the appeal again to everyone who voted:
What is the “fair value” of z.B. Apple?
Can anyone do the specific calculation for the “fair value” using z.B as an example. Present Apple here as a sample invoice that you want to see here? Otherwise, the feature request cannot be implemented.
T
T1er
Björn Beier Current value of a key figure compared to historical value. z.B. at KGV/KBV/KUV, etc.
The stock finder does the great see appendix, where you can enter your P/E ratio or calculate it from historical data and then see whether the share is over or undervalued based on it.
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S
Sven
It's more like a stock finder... To do this, you would have to (semi) “automatically” value the shares and I think that's going at least too far for Parqet at the moment.
J
Jens
As Björn asks below — we need a benchmark for the “fair value.” Should it be legally possible, I would refer to the fair value of the “share finder.” (In the end, that would also be additional marketing for the stock finder, so I could imagine that this could be realized)
M
Martin Zelder
Jens That wouldn't be marketing, it torpedoes their business model...
J
Jens
Martin Zelder Of course, we don't want anything like that.
I'm a big fan of win-win situations
P
PrivatierausP
Martin Zelder even without a subscription (i.e. without manual intervention in the multiples), you can display their assessment of “retrospective 10.. 5.. 3 years” for all stock titles from Stock Finder.
Because so far, this has been done via getting started with Google... instead of via the Stock Finder homepage.
P
P
See also my voting below. I would also like it, fair value in terms of repurchase price. If many from the community add the fair value for themselves, you could also display the community assessment. You could then see whether your assessment of the share is correct or should buy more at a different price.
Q
Qiyiwei
good idea!!
Björn Beier
Based on which indicator? How is the fair value calculated?
P
PrivatierausP
Björn Beier Watch the videos from Stock Finder.. the look at multiples, the coverage of distributions and historical P/E ratios. They do it there quite well and comprehensibly.
Abbo users can then “weight” the P/E ratio with a personal assessment.. whereas the normal visitor who ends up on the page of the respective asset via Google can then only use the rough orientation based on existing P/E averages of the last “10.. 5.. 3 years”.
Björn Beier
PrivatierausP Feel free to send us the link to the relevant explanations/ resources/ metrics
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